
Speaker: Akihiko Matsutani Topic: Shrinking-Population Economics When: Starting at 6:30 p.m. on Sunday, 27 August 2006 Admission: Buy a copy of Shrinking-Population Economics: Lessons from Japan from our shop
Although Japan's population has long been aging, it is now shrinking. Government policy makers and corporate planners are understandably concerned. A smaller and older workforce will mean a decline in productive potential. Fewer consumers will mean less demand overall, and grayer shoppers will mean profound changes in the pattern of demand. Declining tax revenues will starve already cash- strapped municipalities. Regions and industries will no longer be able to rely on accustomed public works spending. Japn's pension and health insurance programs will no longer be viable. Japanese have been largely oblivious to these impending changes, even though the demographic writing has been on Japan's walls for decades. Japan's government, business, academia, and media are rushing to grasp the implications of the country's shrinking and aging population. Their haste is all too evident in a flurry of unfounded pronouncements and half-baked theories about Japan's social and economic prospects. The tone of public and private discourse on the subject is distinctly gloomy. In Shrinking Population Economics: Lessons from Japan (International House of Japan, 2006), author Matsutani Akihiko offers a refreshingly informed and far-reaching account of the economic and social implications of the demographic change under way in Japan. He demonstrates convincingly that demographic trends will occasion socioeconomic changes more sweeping than most pundits have predicted. Matsutani exposes the futility of widely proposed measures for forestalling population and economic shrinkage, such as encouraging Japanese families to have more children and encouraging increased immigration. He urges Japanese to instead learn to live with a smaller, older population. Most strikingly, he argues persuasively that population shrinking and aging promise to redress the great tragedy of Japan's postwar economic surge: the failure of Japan's economic growth to deliver commensurate improvement in Japan's quality of life. Matsutani joined Japan's Ministry of Finance immediately after graduating from the University of Tokyo in 1970. He worked mainly in the Ministry's Budget and Securities Bureaus, where he helped to coordinate fiscal and monetary policies. He moved to academia in 1997 and earned a doctorate in civil engineering from the University of Tokyo in 2004. He is currently a professor at Japan's National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies. His academic work has centered on macroeconomics, public finance, infrastructure engineering, and the economic and social implications of demographic change. Your ticket for admission to Akihiko Matsutani's BOOKNOTES presentation will be a copy of Shrinking-Population Economics: Lessons from Japan (International House of Japan, 2006) bought from Good Day Books. Paperback copies of Shrinking-Population Economics may be purchased at Good Day Books for one thousand five hundred yen (¥1500) each, tax included.
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